I see her majesty's Daily Record has a new indyref poll published today which gives slightly different results from previous polls.
Those clever wee monkeys on both sides of the debate who care about such things have welcomed the findings as good news for their side. Quite clearly they can't both be right; however they can both be wrong. And if they read too much into these polls I think they are.
As a simple footsoldier in the great national separation rammy I don't pretend to be an expert in opinion poll methodology or accuracy. However, I have been out campaigning since the turn of the year and have asked literally hundreds of my fellow bairns how they intend to vote in the referendum and I've got to say that not even a quarter of them are saying they'll vote YES.
We've been here before of course.
In 2011 our canvass returns of Labour Party supporters suggested that our vote was holding up and we were on course for victory. A combination of perhaps the poorest campaign in Labour Party history and voter apathy conspired to give us the kicking we deserved and deliver an unfettered nationalist administration.
This is different.
We're not just speaking to Labour Party supporters in this campaign but to everybody. I've gone down whole streets and failed to find one person who say they will vote YES. I genuinely can't find the 40+% YES vote identified by the opinion polls.
On Sunday we were out in a solid, well-maintained council estate in Falkirk and I spoke to an elderly lady who we had identified as a Labour supporter. I asked how she intended to vote in the referendum. She became quite coy and was a wee bit embarrassed saying that she 'wisnae really sure' OK, I replied I'll put you down as an undecided. 'Och, I'll probably vote no..' she said. Great said I, we're going to be campaigning throughout the summer for a no vote. 'Och, I'll definitely be voting no' she laughed 'I jist didnae want tae say no to you, son..'
Anecdotal I know.
I just wonder how many respondents to the opinion pollsters 'didnae want to say no' to them too...
"This is different".
ReplyDeleteNo it isn't Graham, it's the same mistakes, by the same people (Yourself?)
"who we had identified as a Labour supporter."
WE?
Do you have the many and various British intelligence services at your beck and call 'for the duration of this emergency' Graham?
"she became quite coy and was a wee bit embarrassed saying that she 'wisnae really sure' OK, I replied I'll put you down as an undecided. 'Och, I'll probably vote no..' "
'I then let go of her throat, and let her slide down the wall.'
Another "postal vote" in the bag...
Hi Conan
Delete'We' are the many Labour activists who are out campaigning every week.
We are legion...
Tell you what Conan, I spent a few hours phoning round Falkirk's farming community a week or so ago and they quite simply don't believe the SNP's position on the EU. Worrying for you guys...
Grahamski,
ReplyDeleteis this it?
You are not quite in the same league as Wings or Derek Bateman.
"You are not quite in the same league as Wings or Derek Bateman."
DeleteHigh praise indeed.
Flattery will get you everywhere.
Hi Grahamski,
ReplyDelete"...and have asked literally hundreds..."
I've literally knocked on thousands of doors in the last 18 months - we can both play the numbers game :-) - and there were more NO than YES supporters. Fast forward to today and the position has completely reversed.
Anecdotal, I know, just like your own anecdote. We can both trade anecdotes. Utterly pointless. September 18 is the only opinion poll that counts.
"Quite clearly they can't both be right; however they can both be wrong. And if they read too much into these polls I think they are."
Agreed!
We have a lot more in common than we have differences. The largest gulf is where we believe power should reside. Grahamski, you believe Westminster; I believe Edinburgh. Nothing you say or do will change my mind. And nothing I can say or do will change your mind.
Let's just simply accept that, but with no recriminations, nastiness, negativity and the like, no matter the referendum result.
So, good luck to you and your family.